The Definitive Starter Guide To The LNAT (Law National Aptitude Test) 2024

In 1989, when the environment was briefly top of the UK national agenda, a group of Chinese planners came to London. Many of the people who met them wanted to know how the country had managed to get so many citizens to ride bicycles – something the British authorities were unable to do. The Chinese were perplexed. “You don’t understand”, said one. “In 20 years time, no more bicycles. All cars.” That prediction is being realised. Beijing’s roads, once kerb-to-kerb with bikes, are now choked with cars. In terms of traffic, noise and air pollution, Shanghai could be Lagos or Cairo.

City after Chinese city is widening its roads, building flyovers and underpasses to cater for the increasing number of cars. The fastest automobile explosion the world has ever known is underway across the world’s most populous country. The bike, just a generation ago the transport of choice, is being driven off the street.

Last year, the Chinese reportedly bought four million new cars. Auto numbers there, says the World Bank, are now doubling roughly every four years. Commentators suggest that the country’s 1.3bn people will have more cars than the US within 25 years. Even now, the world’s leading carmakers are spending billions on setting up plants, vehicle prices are dropping precipitously, and the car has become the object of the new consumer’s dreams.

It is a similar story throughout the developing world. For the first time, more than one million new cars were sold in India last year, and the automobile industry there is growing at a rate of about 20% a year. The car fleets of Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Nigeria are growing at similar rates.

But compared to the West, these numbers are as nothing. Private car ownership in the US is about 745 vehicles per 1,000 people, with slightly lower rates in Europe. There may be one car for every 2.4 British people, but only eight Indians and Chinese in 1,000 so far have a car.

Transport, says the Energy Saving Trust, accounts for 26% of all Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions and is the fastest growing source of global emissions. While the US is by far the greatest source, figures released this month by the European Environment Agency figures show emissions are still rising in Europe, making it unlikely that EU countries, as a bloc, will meet their Kyoto target.

Transport in developing countries, however, could exceed those in the industrialised world within five years.

Three years ago, US energy secretary Spencer Abraham suggested that there would be 3.5bn motor vehicles by 2050, almost four times as many as there are today. Unless there is a dramatic switch away from inefficient petrol and gas-driven cars towards biofuels, hydrogen, solar and clean electric power, this growth will be an impossibility. At the simplest level, there will not be enough oil. At the moment, oil supplies and refinery capacity can only just meet world demand from 795m vehicles.

Andrew McKillop, author of The World’s Final Energy Crisis, calculates that China, India and other developing countries will never be able to achieve the vehicle “saturation” ownership levels of the US. “There is simply no prospect of China, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, Iran, Ukraine, Mexico and other emerging car Sample Test 1 18 producers being able to achieve US, west European, Australian or Japanese rates of car production and ownership,” he says. “At current consumption rates, the estimate of 3.5bn motor vehicles would increase world oil consumption by about 70%.” In fact, the petrol used to fuel a car is the very end of a massive industrial process that requires oil at every point. Each car requires up to the equivalent of 55 barrels of oil, and runs on tyres that are about 40% oil by weight, often on tarmac (oil-based) roads. The real volume of oil needed to equip the world with cars is much higher than expected. “Not only is an explosion of the world car fleet a serious threat to the global environment,” McKillop says, “but through its impact on oil demand, it will become a threat to international stability.”